The initial 100-day COVID-19 landscape in Kenya: trends, mitigations and impacts

Since the first case of the novel COVID-19 was recorded in Kenya on 13 May, 2020, the increase in positive cases, transformation into community transmission, and emergence of more epicenters, depicts a disconcerting trend despite the multi-phased government-driven mitigations. Hence the urgent need for more robust mechanisms to track and map COVID-19, and design targeted mitigations. Such interventions include GIS- mapping systems coupled with multivariate analysis, to evaluate the internal dynamics based on prevalence, control measures, responses and successes to combat COVID-19. We applied GIS and statistical analyses to map the 100-day disease pattern, outlined country’s preparedness and COVID-19 projections post-100 days. Results indicate an average daily testing capacity of 11% and a corresponding daily detection rate of 7%. Between March-June 2020, the cumulative 122,418 tests reported 4,783 positive cases. The highest figure (2,816) was reported in June against 57,744 tests conducted. These figures represent 0.26% tested and 0.01% positive cases respectively of the country’s population. Nairobi, Mombasa and Busia counties were identified as ‘hot-spots’. Despite the growing pressure to re-open businesses and public facilities due to socioeconomic challenges, the government should carefully review and rely on expert opinion and initiate sector-specific strategies in combating COVID-19 under the ‘new normal’. Keywords: COVID-19; Community transmission; GIS mapping; Hot-spots; Social distancing; Mitigations; Public-health awareness