The Impact of Temperature Variability on Food Security of Cereals in Morocco: An Econometric Approach by VECM

The objective of this study is to determine the influence of temperature variability and some variables on the food security model of cereals in Morocco. Many variables can play a role in this model. The variables selected for analysis were temperature variation, grain land area, grain imports, fertilizer consumption, and energy consumption. These five independent variables were tested to determine their effect on the food security pattern of cereals in Morocco. This study uses time series data by treating the period from 1981 to 2014. An econometric analysis of food security was conducted for this purpose through the vector error correction model VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) approach. The results of our model estimation show that there is significant long-run causality between food security and the explanatory variables. It was also found that there is a short-term relationship between grain food security and the following variables: Temperature variation, cereal import, and cereal area. Keywords: Food security, cereals, Morocco, Agriculture, temperature variability, VECM